Predictive validity of the medical college admission criteria for academic performance: results from the four MBBS batches of Karachi Medical and Dental College.

OBJECTIVE To assess the predictive validity of the secondary school certificate (SSC), higher secondary certificate (HSC) and IBA admission test for academic performance of MBBS students at KMDC. METHODOLOGY Data based study using the results of first four batches of KMDC, which graduated in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000. Data was entered on SPSS-8, ANOVA, correlation and step-wise linear regression analysis was done using effect models. A total of 166 students record were used for analysis. RESULTS The average IBA score was 65 for all the batches with a significant difference (p = 0.000) amongst the four batches of KMDC. Similarly the scores of all the four batches varied significantly for HSC (p = 0.002), first professional (p = 0.002), third professional (p = 0.000) and the final professional (p = 0.001) exams. The IBA scores had significantly positive weak correlation with second (p = 0.009) and third (p = 0.003) professional marks of the medical students. When the scores of HSC were combined with the IBA test scores, the predictive ability increased for first (p = 0.031) second (p = 0.032) and third (p = 0.011) professional academic performance of medical students. The results of SSC had no effect on the academic performance of medical students. CONCLUSION IBA scores combined with HSC marks can predict academic achievement of medical students for the first three to four years. It however does not predict the performance in the final year, which is where the exit competencies are acquired by the graduates necessary for practicing medicine. The admission criteria lacks the testing of non-cognitive attributes and learning abilities necessary for a medical graduate to practice skillfully. Hence a valid instrument for testing the positive attributes, which could predict good performance of medical doctors, should be designed.